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However, 11 years is only the delay, and the physical interpretation of the delay (see Post IV) suggests the delay is actually the length of the solar cycle—which has varied from 8 to 14 years, but averages 11 years.
The current solar cycle is a long one, probably running around 13 years: 2004 13 = 2017. The delay could be as much as 20 years, in which case the drop could be as late as 2024.
However the physical interpretation of the notch and delay (see Post IV) show that these little changes foretell the changes in a newly detected climate influence from the Sun, which we are calling “force X” for now.
The effect on temperatures of changes in force X is 10 to 20 times as great as the immediate effect of changes in solar radiation (see Post VI).
The discovery of this delay is a major clue about the direction of our future climate.
The flickers in sunlight run a whole sunspot cycle ahead of some other force from the sun.
But if the notch-delay theory is right, the big drop coming is larger than the short term noise.
It cannot predict ENSO events, and obviously not aerosols, nor volcanoes.
This not only fitted with the length of the solar dynamo cycle, but also with previous independent work suggesting a lag of ten years or a correlation with the solar activity of the previous cycle.
The synopsis then is that solar irradiance (TSI) is a leading indicator of some other effect coming from the Sun after a delay of 11 years or so.
Jo Dr David Evans, 27 June 2014, David Evans’ Notch-Delay Solar Theory and Model Home If the Sun mainly controls the temperature on Earth, a turning point is almost upon us.
(In the second part of this series of blog posts we will demonstrate that carbon dioxide is responsible for less than 25% of the global warming of the last six decades, so presumably the Sun mainly responsible.) The reason for the cooling is the dramatic fall in solar radiation that started around 2004.